诺贝尔经济学奖得主迈伦·舒尔斯教授在香港中文大学（深圳）首届本科生毕业典礼上的讲话

在5月20日香港中文大学（深圳）首届本科生毕业典礼上，港中大（深圳）杰出访问教授、诺贝尔经济学奖得主迈伦·舒尔斯教授鼓励大家与他人合作，集众智，解决问题。同时，他希望同学们学会对自己、朋友、同事和团队成员做到抱诚守真，并敢于拥抱和解决不确定性，尊重自己和他人， 这将让同学们学习到新的东西，不断成长，为身边的人创造价值。

诺贝尔经济学奖得主迈伦·舒尔斯教授

在香港中文大学（深圳）首届本科生

毕业典礼上的讲话

在此，祝贺香港中文大学（深圳）第一届本科生正式毕业。我为你们的成就而感到自豪。我相信，在未来的几年中，一批又一批的优秀学子将跟随你们的脚步，离开校园，大大提升港中大（深圳）的声誉。

此外，大湾区的发展会带来许多机遇。你们可以从中学习到许多不一样的东西，从而很好地巩固和补充你从教授、同学和自己的个人研究中学到的理论和应用。请记住，在未来的职业生涯中，不要停止向身边的同事学习。诚然，与他人的联结和互相学习是你未来的成功的关键所在。

我已经在我的专业领域从事教学和研究五十年之久。我可以说，你们的父母和我最早期的学生也许是同一个年代的人。我喜欢我所做的事情；我喜欢学习。其实我今年本来打算要退休了，但我的孙子刚刚被我所在的大学——斯坦福大学录取，即将攻读学士学位。因此，为了跟他搞好关系，我应该会继续教学和研究。于我而言，持续学习，关心自己的健康，以及热爱家庭，是我的生活和创造力的源泉。关心健康，也就是说要均衡饮食，勤加锻炼。我所研究的经济学充满着不确定性。未来也必充满风险，变幻莫测。这些因素是如何影响经济决策的呢？为了更好地理解这些不确定性，为了更好地理解我们身处的混沌的环境，我阅读了大量学科的知识，尝试学习其中的方法，从战争策略、哲学、心理学、行为经济学到文学、物理学、统计学等均有涉猎。

在复杂的学科体系和混沌大千世界中，我希望能克服四大弱点。 我们必须尝试去克服这些弱点。 信息集如此巨大，在海量的信息面前，我们必须做出关键决策，建立模型来解释现象。 这四个弱点包括：（a）思考速度慢，（b）糟糕的记忆，（c）过分渴望成功，以及（d）因循守旧。

诺贝尔经济学奖得主迈伦·舒尔斯教授致辞

人类的思考速度其实是很慢的。这意味着如果要成功，我们必须与团队合作。 独自学习和创造是很难成功的。 我们必须与他人建立联系。 随着可能的路径或节点数量的增加，解决问题会变得越来越困难。世界如此混乱，我们的算法和模型必定也是不完整的，不仅有错误，而且难以校准。 然而，这些错误正是真正的学习的基础，而与他人的联系则起到了非常重要的作用。 我们需要决定是否重新校准我们的算法。

我们必须与他人合作，集众智，解决问题。 不幸的是，大多数的计划都是以任务为导向的，也就是急于采取行动。 但是，与之相反，我们必须设定目标，并把灵活性、试验、失败和学习考虑其中。我们需要清楚自己的目标，而不是问苦苦思索该怎么做。 不确定性其实是我们的朋友。与之好好相处，我们便能以与对手相同或更低的成本实现创新，快速找到更个性化、更灵活的解决方案。然而，将目标内化是非常困难的。 目标要有所反馈，同时也要向其他团队成员学习，从而更好地理解目标。如此一来，才能获得队友的支持，团队方可同心协力，共同进步。 学习与简单地把目标说出来是完全不同的。

我一直建议学生，要与最优秀的人为伍，且尽可能地从他人身上学习。 模仿是最好的方法。你们要模仿和学习其他的团队成员。 但是，倘若你认为身边的人不够优秀时，理应继续前进，寻找更优秀的队友。

解决问题的时候，要选择一些好的问题，而且要清楚表述问题所在。如果仅仅因为任务所迫而去解决一些不好的问题，绝非长久之计。法有定论，兵无常形，要善于团队合作，解决更有意义更有价值的问题。

对团队成员来说，也许最重要的是彼此赤诚相待，开诚相见。 实事求是，团队才能实现创新和成功。 大多数的团队都希望在彼此信任的环境下工作， 也希望自己的领导者能做到开诚布公。不幸的是，在我的国家，某些领导人似乎并不没有意识到抱诚守真的重要性。 在不确定性面前，信任尤为重要。 无法做到抱诚守真，团队就无法蓬勃发展。 团队成员必须相互信赖，进而实现创新。

每个团队必须坚持不懈地努力实现其目标。 但是，变化无方，团队也需要灵活应变，及时根据现实情况改变算法或调整实验。要做到这一点，其实是非常困难的。 绝大多数伟大发现并非“灵光一显”。我们需要融会贯通，善于联结那些看似无关的发现。 多年来，我一直模仿他人，与他人合作，经常去听一些和我的研究领域看起来毫无相关的研究报告。看似南辕北辙，实则触类旁通，因而才有了我后来的伟大成果。研究与开发能够带来好的结果;而不停的试验能带来伟大的成果。这点对于改善研发来说，至关重要。 光有研发，并不足够。 R＆D＆T（研发+试验）才真正有助于创新，从而改善他人的生活。

糟糕的记忆：我们必须制度化或系统化记忆，但很少人真的这样做了。 例如，只有不到百分之十的对公司有价值的信息得以收集和保留。 我们能记住的东西真的不多。 （例如，我们很难记住前天晚餐时吃过的东西。）但我们却错误地认为，自己对某事物研究已经很透彻了，认为自己已经找到了正确的做法；我们利用不完整的信息和片面的记忆，逐步走进了更加混浊的世界。

这就是大数据、人工智能、云计算和边缘云的优势所在。 未来，团队将建立交互式算法，并且越来越多地用在计算机和AI系统之中。 我们将进入人与AI系统的互联时代。 毕竟，在变幻莫测愈发混沌的世界里，我们必须这样做。 数据、数据分析以及记忆系统化将成为下一个“蒸汽”引擎。

过分渴望成功：混乱世界的第三大弱点是过分追求成功。大多数人对不确定性和失败充满恐惧。我一直倡导要拥抱不确定性。如果每次任务都成功，那证明风险还不足够。许多失败的人不会从失败中学习，而是陷入困境，一味收集更多的信息，或像炮弹一样，朝一个方向发射，永不回头。然而，生活更像是导弹。我们必须做出调整；没有不断的调整，没有成功与失败的试验，我们永远无法得知正确的路径。与此同时，在团队合作中，许多人喜欢邀功诿过。面对共同研发的成果，往往认为自己的贡献是最大的。这样的现象提醒我们，邀功虽无过错，诿过绝不可取。成功与失败，都要共同承担；激励措施不应仅以个人为基础，而应该基于整个团队。这可以进行风险规避，将风险转移给团队，并且能带来更多的合作、生产力和增长。团队风险分担将成为未来与AI技术交互的重要组成部分。

因循守旧：我们大多数人都喜欢本已熟悉、让人感到舒适的事物。 然而，求知若渴、独出新裁，敢于思考不同方向的事物，才是我人生的信条，正如我的英雄和榜样——达芬奇一样。 在生活中向前迈进时，要灵活应变，向左看，也向右看。 要享受成功， 也要享受失败。 学习就是经历失败的过程。 接受尚不明确的事物，寻求大量的意见和输入，如此一来，生活将日新月异，不断拓宽你的视野。

抱诚守真，是克服以上所有的弱点的良方。 如若能对自己、朋友、同事和团队成员做到抱诚守真，荣耀自会到来。 我希望大家能好好思考下这些重要的问题，敢于拥抱和解决不确定性，尊重自己和他人， 您必将学习到新的东西，不断成长，并为身边的人创造价值。

香港中文大学（深圳）处于技术创新的中心，为此我感到非常自豪。 你们的课程，你们的知识，正好反映了我强调的重点。未来还有很多东西需要学习、研究和理解。 在你的一生中，无论是未来求学的道路上，还是在应用所学的旅途中，必定还有许多东西需要学习，有许多新事物需要模仿，继往开来，以扩充知识，构建新的框架。

再一次，祝贺各位正式毕业。 你们很幸运，你们接受的教育鼓励思考，这项技能实属难能可贵。 正如我方才所言，学无止境，希望各位能活到老，学到老。祝各位前程似锦。

Nobel Laureate Myron Scholes's Speech at The First Graduation Ceremony for Bachelor Degree 

Graduates, CUHK-Shenzhen

Congratulations to the first undergraduate class to graduate from CUHK(Shenzhen). Not only should you be proud of your achievements, but also you will realize in the years ahead that many graduation classes in addition to your own will add dramatically to the prestige and stature of CUHK (Shenzhen).

Moreover, the greater Bay Area will offer you the opportunity to garner additional experience to augment and supplement the theory and applications of the theory that you have learned from your professors, fellow students and your own individual studies.  Remember in your careers ahead not to give up learning from your fellow colleagues.  As I will stress connectivity and learning from others in graduate school and in your first job and future careers will be crucially important to your future successes.  

I have taught and conducted research in my areas of expertise now for 50 years.  That is a long time. I think that I am safe to predict that many of your parents could have been in my early classes.  I love what I am doing; I love learning.  Although I was contemplating retiring this year, my grandson has just been accepted as an undergraduate at my university, Stanford University, and, as a result, I think that I will keep teaching and conducting research to create a stronger bond with him.   Maybe he will come back and ask me to explain difficult problems that he has with the Black-Scholes model. I believe that continuing to learn, looking after one’s health; that is, both diet and exercise, and loving family have been great contributors to my life and creativity.  My area of research is that the economics is uncertainty.  How does uncertainty and changes in the future risks that we face affect economic decision making? I have read in myriad areas from war strategy, to philosophy, phychology, behaviorial economics, literature, physics, statistics, and beyond, to really understand their approaches and enhance my approach to understanding uncertainty and the chaotic environment in which we live.  

I want to address four critical failures in complex systems and the chaotic world that we face in today’s talk. We must attempt to overcome these failures. The information set that we face in the world around is so gigantic, so vast,  and so much information we must make critical decisions and build models to try to explain phenomenon. These failures are a) slowness of human thinking, (b) horrible memories, (c) a desire to be deemed to be competent, and, (d) an inability to think outside of our orientation.

Prof. Myron Scholes 

delivered a keynote speech

Slowness of human thinking means that to succeed it is necessary to work in teams. It is extremely difficult to learn and create on our own. We must connect with others.  As the number of possible paths or nodes increase, it becomes harder and harder to solve problems.  With chaos all around us, algorithms and models must be incomplete and not only have errors but also will be hard to calibrate.  These errors are the basis from which real leaning arises and connectivity play an important role.  We need to decide whether to recalibrate our algorithms and models, or to change them dramatically.  

We must work with others to join our intellectual inputs to address these problems. Unfortunately, however, most plans that we have are task-oriented; that is, a desire for a plan of action. Instead, we must set goals and allow for flexibility, experiments, failures, and learning.  What is the objective, not the tactics? Uncertainty is a friend because it allows for innovation to meet objectives that provide solutions faster, more individualized and more flexible at the same or lower cost than competitors. It is difficult, however, to internalize objectives.  Feedback on an objective and learning from others on the team to understand the objective is crucial to achieve buy-in from other team members so the team can move forward as one unit.  Learning is completely different from stating an objective.

I have always counselled students that they should go where the best are and learn as much as possible from others. Mimic the best. Mimic and learn from other team members.  If they are not with best for them, however, they must move on and find the best for them.

Work on good problems, and make sure that they are articulated completely. Working on bad problems because that is an assigned task is not a good plan. Be flexible and within the team be flexible and decide to work and complete the better problems.

Maybe one to the most important for team members is trust and truth telling. Innovation and success comes with telling the truth.  Teams want to work in a trusting environment. They want their leaders to be truthful. Unfortunately, certain leaders in my country don’t appear to believe that truth and honor are important.  Trust is so important under uncertainty. Without trust and honor, teams can’t prosper.  Team members must trust each other to create and to rely on others.

Your team must be persistent in trying to achieve its goals.  But, it must have the flexibility to change its algorithms or adjust its experiments based on evidence.  This is difficult.  Most great discoveries are not “eureka” moments, a bolt out of the blue.  They come through connectivity and connecting seemingly unrelated observations. My own great discoveries came over many years connecting ideas and mimicking others and working with others and listening to research in seemingly unrelated areas.  Good outcomes result from research and development; however, great outcomes result from testing, which is crucial to improve both research and development.  R&D doesn’t work.  R&D&T (testing) does give us a way to create and improve the lives of others.    

Memory is Horrible:  We must institutionalize or systematize our memory.  We seldom do.  For example, less that ten percent of the information produced that is valuable to corporations is collected and retained today.  We don’t remember much.  (For example, it is difficult to remember what we had for dinner two nights ago.)  Incorrectly, we think we studied something; we think we had the correct approach; we move forward into the chaos around us with incomplete information and biased memory.  

This is where big data, AI, cloud and the edge of the cloud have a huge advantage. In the future, teams will connect more and more with computers and AI systems that employ interactive algorithms that teams have built.  We will move into the age of connectivity between humans and AI systems.  This must be so with uncertainty and a chaotic world. Data and data analyses and systematization of memory will be the next “steam” engine.  

Demand for Competence:  The third failure in a chaotic world is the demand for competence.  Most individuals fear uncertainty and fear failure. I claim that we must embrace uncertainty.  Without failing in some tasks we have not taken enough risk.  Many who fail don’t learn from the failure but hunker down and gather more and more information.   Or they go off in one direction like a cannon ball.  Life, however, is a missile.  We must make adjustments; we can’t know the exact path to follow without adjustments, experiments with successes and with failures.  Most team members assume that success is attributable to them and failure to someone else.  And, individuals claim the joint product, the franchise value for themselves.  These tendencies mean that teams must learn not only to claim successes but also to understand failures.  Incentives should be based not solely to individuals but more so on the team.  This reduces risk aversion and transfers risk to the team.   More cooperation/ productivity and growth is the result.  Team risk sharing will become an important component in interacting with AI technologies of the future.

Failure to think outside of the familiar orientation:  Most of us like the comfortable path or routes that we take and about which we are knowledgeable.  Be curious, however, search out new ideas, think in different directions, become my hero and model in life, Leonardo De Vinci. Be flexible, look to the left and look to the right when moving forward in life.  Enjoy having these different thoughts and different paths.  Enjoy your failures.  Learning is experiencing failures.   Accept ambiguity and seek myriad opinions and inputs.  The manifold of life we observe today will be different tomorrow.   You will grow and expand your horizons.   

All of the above failures can be overcome by being truthful to yourself and others.  Honor is self-respect and being truthful to yourself and to your friends and to your fellow workers and team members.  I want to leave you with these important thoughts.  Address and embrace uncertainty and honor yourself and others.  You will grow and learn and add value for all that you associate with. 

I am proud that the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) is in the center of technological innovation.  Your courses and your knowledge reflect this emphasis.  There is so much to learn, to study, and to understand.  In your lifetimes either in further formal studies or in applications of your learning, there is much to learn, so many new things to model to build on current practice to enhance our understanding and to build new frameworks.   

Once again, I congratulate you as graduates.  You are fortunate to have been trained to think and your skills are in high demand.  As I have emphasized, your education is continuing.  Keep leaning.  Good luck to all of you. 

The First Graduation Ceremony for Bachelor Degree Graduates

迈伦•舒尔斯教授简介

迈伦•舒尔斯教授是美国经济学家，香港中文大学（深圳）杰出大学教授。他曾提出著名的布莱克-舒尔斯期权定价公式——一种为期权或权证等金融衍生工具定价的数学模型，这一模型扩大了期权定价模型的应用范围，为企业新型债务及交易证券如保险合约进行定价提供了新方法。该计算法已成为金融机构涉及金融新产品定价的指引方法，舒尔斯教授因此获得1997年诺贝尔经济学奖。

About the Speaker

Prof. Myron Scholes was awarded the 1997 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for developing the Black–Scholes option pricing model — a calculation method that has become the universal approach for financial institutions to determine the pricing of financial derivatives. A Canadian-American financial economist, he is a Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business and a Distinguished-Professor at-Large at CUHK-Shenzhen. He has held leading positions in many major financial institutions including Salomon Brothers. Prior to CUHK-Shenzhen and Stanford he has previously been a Professor at the University of Chicago and at MIT.

    图片及内容由港中大（深圳）传讯与公共关系处提供